The 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration noaa climate. The outlook is produced in collaboration with hurricane experts from the national hurricane center nhc and the hurricane research division hrd. Spanish translations, when available, are courtesy of the nws san juan weather forecast office. August 6, 2015 the noaa climate prediction centers updated 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for a 90 percent chance of a belownormal hurricane season. The first forecast for the 2015 atlantic hurricane season. The 2015 north indian ocean cyclone season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. Seasonal accumulated cyclone energy ace index during 19502014 blue bars and noaas 2015 outlook ranges with a 70% probability of occurrence red bars. Hugo team at ccu releases hurricane outlook for 2015. The rms 2015 north atlantic hurricane season outlook highlights 2015 seasonal forecasts and summarizes key meteorological drivers in the atlantic basin.
The report summarizes all tropical cyclone activity in the atlantic basin during the 2015 hurricane season and compares the teams seasonal and twoweek forecasts to what actually occurred. Administrations noaa 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates that a belownormal hurricane season is most likely this year. Gulf and atlantic coasts of the united states at risk of storm surge from a. On may 27, the national oceanic and atmospheric administrations. A belownormal season is now even more likely than predicted in may, when the likelihood of. Noaa also issued its outlook for the eastern pacific and central pacific basins. It produced twelve tropical cyclones, eleven named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Csu predicts a quiet 2015 atlantic hurricane season due to. It officially began on june 1, 2014, and ended on november 30, 2014. May 10, 2020 the atlantic hurricane season runs from june 1st through november 30th. Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction oceans and climate.
The original outlook was released on may 27th, when noaa predicted a 70% chance of a belownormal season. Noaas break down of storms for 2015 hurricane season abc news national hurricane preparedness week, may 24 to 30 if you live in an area prone. As with any season, a landfalling hurricane can be a serious threat regardless of seasonal outlooks for the atlantic basin. The coming hurricane season in the atlantic basin is expected to be calmer than normal, but that doesnt mean the east coast is off the hook.
Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. April forecast update for atlantic hurricane activity in 2015. The atlantic hurricane region includes the north atlantic ocean, caribbean sea, and gulf of mexico. The organization listed a set of seasons with similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including 1982, 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2014. The north indian ocean cyclone season has no official bounds, but cyclones tend to form between april and december, with the peak from may to november. The national oceanic atmospheric administration noaa released its 2015 atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook update on thursday. Seventh deadliest atlantic hurricane with at least 416 killed. Climate prediction center atlantic hurricane outlook. While it did not have much of an impact on the northeast, tropical storm ana was able to develop off the coast of the. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in april is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season. The first forecast for the 2015 atlantic hurricane season is.
Several factors likely combined to make the season quiet. Preliminary 2015 hurricane season tracks across the gulf of mexico and western caribbean sea. On april 10, 2015, the servicio meteorologico nacional smn issued its first outlook for the pacific hurricane season, forecasting 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. After a slow tropical season in 2014, how are things looking for the 2015 atlantic hurricane season. May, 2015 above is a table that shows the number of tropical systems we expect for the 2015 atlantic hurricane season. Belowaverage 2015 atlantic hurricane season correctly. So far this season, weve seen three tropical storms in the atlantic basin. May 27, 2015 may 27, 2015 ahead of the 2015 atlantic hurricane season, which begins june 1, new york city emergency management commissioner joseph esposito and jason tuell, director of the national weather service eastern region, discussed the 2015 atlantic hurricane season initial outlook and tips to prepare for hurricane season at ps 24 in sunset park. The latest outlook, has bumped the chance up to 90% for a below. On april 9, csu also released its first quantitative forecast for the 2015 hurricane season, predicting 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and a.
The 2015 atlantic outlooks in a historical perspective 5 noaas updated 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% probability of an ace range of 25%70% of the median. Home projects atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction the figure above shows the climatological distribution of outgoing longwave radiation olr during july, 1979 2015, from the noaa interpolated olr data set. Every year, noaa issues the first atlantic hurricane outlook in may. Apr 02, 2020 csu forecast for the 2020 atlantic hurricane season. Belowaverage 2015 atlantic hurricane season likely, forecasters. Todd crawford of the weather channel professional division in a midjuly outlook. Hurricane outlook calm for first week of 2015 atlantic season. A belownormal season is now even more likely than predicted in may, when the likelihood of a belownormal season was 70 percent. The national oceanic and atmospheric associations climate prediction center updated its atlantic hurricane season outlook thursday. A new hurricane season forecast issued by the weather channel on tuesday says we can expect the number of named storms and hurricanes in the 2015 atlantic season to.
Brian marmo despite a close call with hurricane arthur and a couple of storms reaching major hurricane status category 3 or greater, last year ended up being a relatively quiet season for tropical activity in the atlantic. The 2015 atlantic hurricane season was the last of three consecutive below average atlantic hurricane seasons. The behavior of the atlantic hurricane season thus far is. The atlantic hurricane season will be less active than usual, producing six to 11 named storms through nov. The atlantic hurricane season runs from june 1st through november 30th. The north atlantic hurricane season officially runs from 1 june to 30 november. Shading indicates noaas ace thresholds for classifying hurricane season strength. Another quiet atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of colorado state university csu in their latest seasonal forecast issued april 9. Noaa updates 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook cbs news. Noaas official 2016 atlantic hurricane outlook by the numbers. Atlantic ace index and system numbers in 2015 ace intense tropical index hurricanes hurricanes storms. A brief overview of the hurricane season is available in the 2015 atlantic annual summary pdf.
It was tied with the 2003 and 2008 seasons as the tenth most active atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of total storms. Colorado, united states, thursday february 5, 2015 while longrange forecasts for 2015 atlantic hurricane activity indicate another average to slightly below average season, there is some. Noaa 2015 updated atlantic hurricane season outlook. As expected, the season is still predicted to be belownormal for tropical cyclone activity. For the eastern pacific hurricane basin, noaas 2015 outlook is for a 70 percent chance of an abovenormal hurricane season. Noaa updates 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook. Apr 21, 2015 a new hurricane season forecast issued by the weather channel on tuesday says we can expect the number of named storms and hurricanes in the 2015 atlantic season to stay below historical averages.
Aug 06, 2015 noaa updates 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook. Atlantic hurricane outlook climate prediction center. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of a belownormal season, a 20% chance of a nearnormal season, and only a 10% chance of an abovenormal season. Noaas 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates that a belownormal hurricane season is most likely this year. Despite a belownormal forecast, officials warn those on the atlantic and gulf coasts to stay prepared and vigilant. An early hurricane season outlook suggests few named storms again. Jan 19, 2019 2015 atlantic hurricane season but all the storms talk ft. The 2014 atlantic hurricane season was a well below average season in terms of named storms, and an average season in terms of both hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Noaa updated 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook. May 27, 2015 ahead of the 2015 atlantic hurricane season, which begins june 1, new york city emergency management commissioner joseph esposito and jason tuell, director of the national weather service eastern region, discussed the 2015 atlantic hurricane season initial outlook and tips to prepare for hurricane season at ps 24 in sunset park. Interestingly, we did get off to a very early start. Hugo team at ccu releases hurricane outlook for 2015 school. Track the progress of the 2015 atlantic hurricane season, including every tropical. Of these named storms, 3 5 are anticipated to develop into hurricanes, with 1 2 reaching major hurricane status category 3 or higher, winds of. May 07, 2015 2015 hurricane outlook upcoming may 7, 2015 article by. If you would like to add your forecast information please contact us. Hurricane outlook for 2016 atlantic season abc news. Despite already having one in the books, only 6 10 storms are predicted overall. Noaa issues its forecast for the 2015 atlantic hurricane season. The updated 2015 atlantic outlook in a historical perspective 5 noaasupdated 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% probability of an ace range of 25%70% of the median. The accumulated cyclone energy ace for the season was 68% of the longterm median value. Csu forecast for the 2020 atlantic hurricane season.
Mixed predictions for 2015 atlantic hurricane season. The 2015 atlantic hurricane season was forecast to be slightly below average, and after a 2014 where a very successful forecast was pitch perfect, there was much to live up to in 2015. Hurricane season averages and strength classifications are based on data from the 30year period 19812010. Belownormal atlantic hurricane season is likely this. The weather channel issues the 2015 atlantic hurricane. Aug 07, 2015 every year, noaa issues the first atlantic hurricane outlook in may.
The national oceanic and atmospheric associations climate prediction center updated its. The weather channel issues the 2015 atlantic hurricane season. The 2015 atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration noaa climate prediction center cpc. The vast majority of tropical storms and hurricanes are typically seen during augustoctober aso, the peak months of the hurricane season. Noaa will issue an updated outlook for the atlantic hurricane season in early august, just prior to the historical peak of the season. Apr 22, 2015 a new hurricane season forecast issued by the weather channel on tuesday says we can expect the number of named storms and hurricanes in the 2015 atlantic season to stay below historical averages.